Jaeger et al. (2017, PNAS) find water scarcity amid abundance using human–natural system models. Through a detailed coupled human–natural system model of the Willamette River Basin in Oregon, USA,  the authors identify how climate change and socioeconomic growth will alter the availability and use of water in coming decades. Results demonstrate how water scarcity varies greatly across small distances and brief time periods, even in basins where water may be relatively abundant overall. These findings, and other unexpected results that may seem counterintuitive, underscore the potential value of such models for policy.  You can read the paper here.  You can also check out our story map about this site on our website.

PNAS November 7, 2017. 114 (45) 11884-11889; published ahead of print October 23, 2017. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1706847114